主题：Reform or Revolution: Elites’ Choices under Negative Shocks and the Economic Outcomes
主讲人：刁文天 上海财经大学
主持人：马宁宁 暨南大学
时间：2026年6月12日（周五）上午10:00-11:30
地点：暨南大学石牌校区经济学院大楼（中惠楼）306室
摘要
This paper examines how incumbent elites in late Qing China responded to the shock of the 1895 Sino–Japanese War and the Gongche Shangshu petition. Using a new dataset of all jinshi from 1875–1912, compiled from the Jinshen lu, zhujuan, and CBDB, I trace individual career trajectories. Regression discontinuity design shows that the 1895 cohort, still outside office during the political debate, was more likely to exit bureaucratic careers than the 1894 cohort already in service. Linking these exits to prefecture-level data, I find that departing elites promoted local firm formation but weakened state capacity by failing to suppress revolutionary uprisings. These findings reveal a paradox: reforms designed to preserve the dynasty alienated elites and hastened its collapse. The study contributes to debates on elites and institutions, Chinese economic history, and comparative politics by showing how incumbent elites’ choices between reform and exit shaped regime outcomes.
主讲人简介
刁文天，上海财经大学助理教授。新加坡国立大学经济学博士。主要从事政治经济学、经济史等方向研究。研究兴趣是非正式制度和文化的经济影响，研究对象包括宗族、军阀、晋商、士绅、官僚群体等。
校对 | 马宁宁
责编 | 彭毅
初审 | 李仲达
终审发布 | 何凌云
（来源：暨南大学经济学院微信公众号）
