主题：Global financial cycle and RMB exchange rates: a micro-effect investigation
主讲人：钱兴旺 美国纽约州立大学
主持人：林智韬 暨南大学
时间：2025年7月2日（周三）上午10:00
地点：暨南大学石牌校区经济学院大楼（中惠楼）102室
摘要
High frequency exchange rate dynamics connects to not only domestic economic fundamentals (Andersen et al., 2003) but also global financial conditions. This paper investigates how global financial cycle affects the responses of RMB exchange rate to macroeconomic news announcement surprises. Using 5-minute high-frequency intraday spot exchange rates data, we find that the RMB exchange rates responds to both Chinese and the US macro news. Global financial contraction amplifies the response of RMB, particularly to U.S. news. The responsiveness increases with the level of the global financial contraction. Capital controls mitigate 67% of the impact of global financial contractions on the RMB's macro-news premium. Moreover, the effect of global financial cycle on RMB’s macro news responses is mediated by the liquidity of the RMB exchange rates market.
主讲人简介
钱兴旺，博士毕业于美国加州大学圣克鲁兹分校(University of California, Santa Cruz)，现为纽约州立大学（SUNY Buffalo State University）经济与金融系教授，主要研究领域包括国际金融、国际经济与贸易、资本流动、中国经济与新兴市场等。长期担任香港城市大学全球研究中心（Global Research Unit，GRU）、加州大学圣克鲁兹分校国际经济研究所（Santa Cruz Institution of International Economics，SCIIE）、国际清算银行（Bank for International Settlement，BIS）、香港金融管理局香港货币与金融研究中心（HKIMR）高级研究员。已在Journal of International Money and Finance, Review of International Economics, Review of Development Economics, China Economic Review等国际权威学术期刊发表学术论文二十余篇。
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校对| 林智韬
责编| 彭毅
初审| 林智韬
终审发布| 何凌云
（来源：暨南大学经济学院微信公众号）
