主题：Public Pensions and Fertility Decline: Evidence from Rural China
主讲人：刘宏 中国人民大学
主持人：罗唯 暨南大学
时间：2025年7月3日（周四）下午15:00-16:30
地点：暨南大学石牌校区经济学院大楼（中惠楼）102室
摘要
This paper examines how the expansion of public pension benefits may influence fertility behavior, drawing on the nationwide rollout of China’s New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) between 2009 and 2012. Using a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in policy timing and agricultural population share across counties, we find that NRPS implementation is associated with a decline in annual fertility rates, driven mainly by reductions in male births. The fertility response is more pronounced in areas with stronger pre-reform reliance on children for old-age support and is concentrated at higher-order births. Complementary analysis of completed fertility suggests a modest but persistent decline in total births, without increasing childlessness. Micro-level evidence from national survey data indicates that pension enrollment is linked to lower fertility preferences—particularly for sons. These findings suggest that public pension programs can shape reproductive behavior by influencing the perceived value of children as a source of old-age security.
主讲人简介
刘宏，现任中国人民大学劳动人事学院教授、博士生导师，入选国家级青年人才项目、教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划、北京市高校学校青年英才计划、中国人民大学吴玉章青年学者。主要研究领域为医疗保障、养老保障、健康经济学和劳动经济学。在Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Health Economics、Journal of Comparative Economics、Journal of Population Economics、《经济研究》《管理世界》《经济学（季刊）》《世界经济》《金融研究》等国内外一流经济学学术期刊上发表论文五十余篇，主持国家社会科学基金重大项目、国家自然科学基金面上项目和省部级课题等多项课题，撰写的资政报告获得党和国家领导人的批示。
欢迎感兴趣的师生参加！
校对| 罗唯
责编| 彭毅
初审| 李仲达
终审发布| 何凌云
（来源：暨南大学经济学院微信公众号）
