主题：The Firm Balance Sheet Channel of Uncertainty Shocks
主讲人：周文涛 美国密歇根州立大学
主持人：王彬 暨南大学
时间：2025年5月30日（周五）上午10:00-11:30
地点：暨南大学石牌校区经济学院大楼（中惠楼）403室
摘要
This paper studies the transmission of macro uncertainty shocks through firm balance sheet adjustments. Empirically, I find that firms respond to increased macro uncertainty by reducing capital investment and debt while increasing cash holdings, with the extent of these adjustments shaped by firms’ ex-ante indebtedness. I explain the empirical patterns using a quantitative heterogeneous firm model in which financial frictions induce firm precautionary behavior. In the model, higher uncertainty increases the risk of liquidity shortages, and thus firms reduce debt and investment while accumulating cash to mitigate such risk. I find that elevated macro uncertainty, via the transmission mechanism, triggers sharp aggregate output and productivity drops with increased micro dispersion and worsened capital misallocation, accounting for key features of U.S. recessions. These impacts are particularly strong along with financial crises during which firm precautionary behavior further intensifies, leading to deep and persistent recessions. I show that credit interventions, though barely counteracting the impact of first-moment shocks, can significantly attenuate the impact of uncertainty shocks, uncovering a novel stabilizing role of credit policies in recessions.
主讲人简介
周文涛是密歇根州立大学经济学助理教授。他的研究使用定量模型和微观数据来理解金融摩擦和企业预期如何影响企业动态、资源分配、冲击传递和经济周期波动。他的博士论文《不确定冲击的企业资产负债表渠道》获得了多个奖项，包括由加拿大中央银行赞助的北方金融协会最佳博士论文奖。该论文也是2023年美国财政部金融研究办公室研讨会上展示的5篇论文之一。周文涛于2024年在威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校获得经济学博士学位。
欢迎感兴趣的师生参加！
校对|王彬
责编| 彭毅
初审| 李仲达
终审发布| 何凌云
（来源：暨南大学经济学院微信公众号）
