主题：Population Aging and Local Government Investment Bonds: Impacts and Countermeasures
主讲人：孙伟增 中央财经大学
主持人：吴建新 暨南大学
时间：2024年4月16日（周二）下午15:00-16:30
地点：暨南大学石牌校区经济学院大楼（中惠楼）102室
摘要
This study utilizes data on population aging and local government investment bonds to demonstrate that population aging significantly increases the issuance spread and scale of local government investment bonds. Instrumental variable estimation results show that for every one-percentage-point increase in the elderly dependency ratio over 60 years old, the issuance spread of local government investment bonds increases by 24.5-25.5 basis points. Mechanism analysis reveals that population aging affects the issuance and scale of local government investment bonds by lowering economic growth expectations, reducing urban total factor productivity, and impacting urban tax revenue levels, thus exacerbating local implicit debt burdens. Further analysis indicates that low-quality and long-term local government investment bonds are more affected by population aging, while cities with less pressure on social security burdens and higher penetration rates of industrial robots are less affected.
主讲人简介
孙伟增，中央财经大学经济学院副教授，中国城市经济学会房地产专业委员会专家委员，中国房地产中青年学者30人论坛成员，中国国土经济学会区域战略青年学者菁英会成员，中国数量经济学会第十四届理事会理事。研究领域包括城市经济学、区域经济学、房地产经济学等。在American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of Urban Economics,《中国社会科学》《经济研究》等国内外知名期刊发表论文90余篇。主持国家自然科学基金青年和面上项目、北京社会科学基金重点项目等，获得第九届高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖（人文社会科学）、第五届洪银兴经济学奖、世界华人不动产学会年会最佳论文奖、亚洲房地产学会年会最佳论文奖等学术荣誉和奖励。
欢迎感兴趣的师生参加！
校对|吴建新
责编|彭毅
初审|余英
终审发布|何凌云
（来源：暨南大学经济学院微信公众号）
