主题：Presidential Particularism (and the Trump Anomaly): Evidence from Federal Contract Awards and Capital Markets
主讲人：张繁 香港中文大学
主持人：刘明媚 暨南大学
时间：2024年11月1日（周五）下午15:00
地点：暨南大学石牌校区经济学院大楼（中惠楼）102室
摘要
Using a comprehensive database covering federal contracts, we document presidential particularism in the allocation of U.S. federal government contracts during election cycles. Firms located in ''Swing'' and ''Core'' states receive disproportionately higher monetary value in federal contracts at the expense of firms that operate in Hostile'' states. Awards to Core states peak in re-election years for incumbent presidents, suggesting both electoral and partisan motives. In contrast, awards to firms located in Core states fall relative to those located in Hostile states in election years for presidents' second terms. Government agencies engage more aggressively in particularism when they work under members of a president's cabinet or their leaders have the same party affiliation as the president. Particularism disappears during the Trump presidency when Hostile-state firms are awarded more contracts than Core-state firms. Based on empirical patterns of analyst forecasts and stock returns, we find that market participants are slow to recognize the implications of particularism for corporate earnings and under-react to this phenomenon.
主讲人简介
张繁是香港中文大学金融学博士候选人，专注于政治与金融的交叉领域。她的研究主要集中在政府采购、国际贸易和劳动力多样性。她拥有阿姆斯特丹大学的硕士学位和对外经济贸易大学的学士学位。她的研究在美国金融协会（AFA）和中国国际金融会议（CICF）等金融会议上展示，并被纳入国家经济研究局（NBER）工作论文系列。
欢迎感兴趣的师生参加
校对| 刘明媚
责编| 彭 毅
初审| 陈 鹏
终审发布| 何凌云
（来源：暨南大学经济学院微信公众号）
